Spearhead's calibrated mark for Figma is $12.5B as of 2025-07-30, with an 80% conformal interval of $5.4B–$29B (illustrative/backtest).

How is Figma's valuation calculated?

The mark blends typed observations from publicly reported events on a disclosed recency half-life; the interval comes from split conformal prediction on walk-forward residuals, widened by staleness. Full methodology: https://pegasusthreesixty.com/methodology

◆ SPEARHEADCOMPANY PAGE2026-06-14

Figma

Name: Figma pre-IPO valuation mark (Spearhead)
License: https://pegasusthreesixty.com/methodology

Collaborative interface design platform. IPO'd July 2025 after the terminated Adobe acquisition; the first-day pop is this scorecard's flagship miss.

$12.5B[$5.4B – $29B]0.0%

80% BAND · AS OF 2025-07-30 · STALENESS 440D · CONFIDENCE 72% · 1 SOURCES · METHODOLOGY v0.2.0 →

00 / Mark history

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Company detail pages on Research show the headline mark and provenance only. Pro unlocks charts, mark events, and both interval bands. Illustrative / backtest — not investment advice.

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The headline mark and 80% band above are public. Full history, 95% bands, and mark events require Pro. Sign up · See plans. Illustrative / backtest — not investment advice.

01 / Provenance

Every input, with its citation

Marks are derived exclusively from the rows below. Excluded rows are shown for completeness and never enter the calculation.

Observed	Type	Implied valuation	Source	Quality	In mark	Cited
2025-07-31	IPO open	$50B	CNBC	—	EXCLUDED	VERIFIED
2025-07-30	IPO pricing	$19.3B	Figma announcement	—	EXCLUDED	VERIFIED
2024-05-16	Tender offer	$12.5B	CNBC	0.80	INPUT	VERIFIED
2022-09-15	Acquisition offer	$20B	Adobe announcement	—	EXCLUDED	VERIFIED

This page is a backtest replay of publicly reported events. Indicative valuations, not transactable prices. Underlying assets are illiquid; inputs are limited to publicly reported events with source attribution. Pegasus Three Sixty and SpearHead are an information-only valuation product, do not hold client balances, and do not provide investment recommendations. Reported valuations inherit the share-count basis of the cited articles; bases differ between outlets and are recorded in event notes.