Final mark (T−1)
$22.1B
→ Spearhead validationBacktest - not live marks
CoreWeave:
the 1.5% read.
Two market-derived prints — a round and a secondary — walked forward into a frozen pre-IPO mark. The Nasdaq open landed almost exactly on it. Then the same scorecard prints the names public data got badly wrong, because that gap is the product.
DATA: FIXTURE | BACKTEST
00 / The chart
Mark, band, and the open
CoreWeave · mark + 80% conformal band · ◆ public events · amber = IPO open · backtest
01 / The sequence
How the read happened
MAY 2024 · ROUND
Series C prices CoreWeave at $19B. The mark anchors to a fresh, high-quality print.
NOV 2024 · SECONDARY
A $650M secondary clears at $23B. The blend leans into the newer print; the band tightens as staleness resets.
MAR 27 2025 · FREEZE
The IPO prices. Spearhead's mark freezes at T−1: $22.1B with the 80% band published.
MAR 28 2025 · OUTCOME
First trade implies $22.4B. Error: −1.5% — recorded as an append-only accepted event.
Why this case matters
CoreWeave had what most private names lack: two market-derived prints in the year before listing. Where that flow exists, calibrated blending reads the clearing price almost exactly. Where it doesn't, the honest answer is a wide band — and sometimes a published miss.
02 / The misses
What public data alone cannot see
The same model, the same rules, printed these errors. We publish them because they are the strongest argument for market-derived inputs.
Figma MISS
Last public print: a $12.5B tender, fourteen months before listing. The open implied $50B — −75.0% outside even the 95% band. No blend of stale prints could see a 4x re-rating; only live market data could.
Cerebras MISS
The last private round priced $8.1B eight months before a $70B open (−88.4%). The most spectacular gap in the dataset — and the clearest case that funding-round data is a floor, not a price.
The product implication
Public prints are the audit trail, not the signal. The licensed feed exists to add what these misses lacked: continuous market-derived observations between rounds, calibrated by the same conformal machinery and scored on the same public scorecard. See the full scorecard →
Scorecard figures are computed from a backtest replay of public events. Indicative valuations, not transactable prices. Underlying assets are illiquid; inputs are limited to publicly reported events with source attribution. Pegasus Three Sixty and SpearHead are an information-only valuation product, do not hold client balances, and do not provide investment recommendations.